Biden can no longer beat Trump. He should make way for another candidate

When I ended up in New York in April 1984 as a 15-year-old (my father worked for the UN), the campaign for that year's presidential election was already in full swing. Walter Mondale, vice president under Jimmy Carter from 1977 to 1981, was the Democratic candidate. He was up against Ronald Reagan, the Hollywood actor who had made his way to the White House via the governorship of California. Things did not end well for Mondale. Reagan won the election by a landslide.

At 73 years old, Reagan was the oldest president in American history in 1984. In the first TV debate between the two candidates, Reagan appeared confused and disoriented. He dispelled these concerns in the second debate with a successful joke: “I will not exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience,” Reagan said of the 56-year-old Mondale. Ten years later, it would be revealed that Reagan suffered from Alzheimer’s disease.

I thought of this last week when I watched the CNN debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the middle of the night with increasing dismay. From the moment Biden sluggishly shuffled onto the stage, it was clear the Democrats had a big problem. Biden's voice was hoarse and uncertain. He mixed up topics. He misspoke several times. He didn't finish sentences. Sometimes he looked as if he didn't quite know where he was. It was disconcerting to watch.

The Biden campaign emphasised afterward that presidential candidates sometimes have a bad debate night. They pointed to 2012 when President Barack Obama had a poor performance in his first encounter with Republican candidate Mitt Romney. Even then, the panic among Democrats was significant. But the political maestro Obama regained his composure and easily won a second term.

The chance of this happening with Biden seems virtually nil. Biden lacks Reagan's charisma or sense of humour. It is inconceivable that he can shrug it off with a quip, like Reagan did. The damage caused by the debate is too great. Although Obama made a series of tactical blunders in his debate with Romney, his mental faculties were not in doubt.

A second debate between Biden and Trump is scheduled for September. Many Democrats are openly questioning whether Biden should wait for this second chance. A second term for Trump could irreparably damage American democracy, especially now that the Supreme Court ruled this week that Trump cannot be prosecuted for crimes committed in his capacity as president. This leaves only the voters able to prevent the U.S. from sliding into a form of autocracy. The stakes are huge, for the country itself and for the rest of the world.

Among Republicans, there is hardly a word of criticism to be heard about Trump, even after his recent conviction in the so-called hush money case. His critics have either been silenced or left the party. Therefore, all hope rests on the Democratic presidential candidate. But in a poll conducted after the debate, a large majority of voters deemed Biden unfit for the presidency. The New York Times has already called on Biden to leave the race so the Democrats can choose a new candidate who can take on Trump more effectively.

According to the Biden campaign, the president should be judged on his successes over the past three years, not on one bad debate performance. They also argue that Biden is the only one who can still beat Trump. But anyone who watched last week's debate knows better. That Biden can still win against Trump seems out of the question—unless there is a dramatic turn of events in the campaign. Moreover, based on what we saw last week, it is very much in doubt whether Biden can physically and mentally handle another four years in the White House.

As Biden’s vice president, Kamala Harris is the obvious candidate to take over from him. But she has failed to convince over the past few years and is almost as unpopular as Biden himself. California Governor Gavin Newsom and his Michigan colleague Gretchen Whitmer are seen as possible alternatives. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Democratic House Leader Hakeem Jeffries are also highly regarded.

Of this quartet, the 52-year-old political street fighter Whitmer possibly has the best credentials. Biden narrowly won Michigan in 2020. Now, according to polls, Trump is a few percentage points ahead. The popular governor’s candidacy could electorally secure the crucial state for the Democrats.

By having the candidates face off in a series of debates between now and the Democratic Convention in August, it can be determined who among them is best able to take on Trump. This way, last week's debacle could still have a silver lining. With a youthful and energetic Democratic challenger facing him, the 78-year-old Trump could still have a tough time this fall. A Reaganesque joke will no longer suffice.

(The original Dutch-language version of this article appeared in De Morgen on 3 July 2024.)