Keir Starmer may struggle to meet voters' expectations

On 1 May 1997, Tony Blair's New Labour achieved a resounding electoral victory that ended 18 years of Conservative rule, first under the iron lady Margaret Thatcher and later under the colourless and scandal-ridden John Major. Under the media-savvy Blair, Labour went on to win two more elections, a record for the party.

More than a quarter-century later, the polls once again predict a substantial victory for Labour, one that could be even greater than Blair's in 1997. The Conservatives, after years of economic mismanagement, internal squabbles, and a series of corruption scandals, are at a historic low and are now vying for second place with the populist-right Reform UK party led by Brexit frontman Nigel Farage, who decided at the last moment to participate in the elections.

But whereas Blair took over from the Conservatives in a favourable economic climate, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer finds a country that is down in every respect. Due to a combination of years of government spending cuts under Prime Minister Cameron, the severing of trade relations with the European Union, the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the disastrous financial policies of the brief Prime Minister Truss, the economy is in dire straits. The 'Brexit dividend' promised by Boris Johnson never materialised.

The state of public services in the country is downright deplorable. The privatised railways are virtually bankrupt. School buildings are collapsing due to chronic lack of maintenance. Hospitals face record waiting lists, even for life-threatening illnesses. Poverty and social inequality are increasing rapidly. Food banks are springing up like mushrooms.

Labour is campaigning with the simple but effective slogan “Change.” Most Britons are more than fed up with the Conservatives and crave change. But it is highly questionable whether Starmer and his team will be able to meet the high expectations after 4 July. Following the radical left-wing policies of his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn, which drove moderate voters away from Labour en masse, Starmer mainly wants to show that he is a safe pair of hands.

For instance, he promises that taxes for the average Briton will not increase and wants to raise government spending only slightly. A plan to invest heavily in green growth was hastily withdrawn by Starmer in the run-up to the elections. He now pins his hopes on measures such as tackling tax avoidance, implementing reforms in the National Health Service, and boosting housing construction.

Economists point out that a return of the United Kingdom to the European single market could undo some of the economic damage caused by Brexit. The higher economic growth this would bring could also create more room for government investment. But for now, this is non-negotiable for Labour. Starmer is reluctant to reopen the national Brexit debate, which deeply divided the country. He only wants to strengthen ties with the EU in a limited number of areas.

The danger for Starmer is that he might soon be caught between his moderate election promises on the one hand and the high expectations of the electorate and his own parliamentary faction on the other. If, after the Conservatives, Labour also fails to address the major challenges facing the country, there is a risk that a majority of Britons will lose faith in the two major parties for good, and that right-wing populism will gain a foothold in the United Kingdom as well.

(The original Dutch-language version of this article appeared in De Volkskrant on 3 July 2024.)